Take
At some point we have to outsource understanding too in order to progress.
Takes and predictions
Take
If AI music is truly inferior because it has no soul, then human music with soul should have a lasting competitive advantage. If fans or musicians are still afraid that AI will replace human artists, they are implicitly admitting that much of the music they defend may have been soulless all along.
Prediction Open
Prediction: AI speed will increasingly get more important than intelligence (relatively).
Take
If your job’s input and output are digital you are actually just an app.
Prediction Open
Prediction on prediction markets: ASSUMING insider trading stays legal AND/OR betting anonymous is possible -> I think these are valid and likely assumptions
Create perverse incentives and will OFTEN reverse predicting to causing
Will ruin sports as we know it
Prediction Open
Prediction: human interfaces/UIs are the major limiting factor for AI automation.
Take
The question is more important than the answer
- Bas B 2023 #ai
Prediction Wrong
50k incoming within 2 weeks.
Take
Opinion: If you are openly part of a group/religion that participates in violence or crime you have to ACTIVELY speak against it. If not, you are just as bad as the violent subset of the group.
Prediction thread 1/3 correct
Real estate prices in The Netherlands (especially in and around big cities) will: I just don’t know the weight of these factors.
- Wrong Prices plummet — less demand from unemployment, many old people dying, and some forced to sell because of the bad economy. None of these dragged the market down; prices rose instead.
- Correct Prices do not really plummet — houses stay scarce in and around big cities, owners hold rather than sell mid-pandemic, and the ECB runs infinite QE. This side won decisively — CBS: +10.4% YoY by Feb 2021, the biggest rise in ~20 years.
- Wrong Keep your cash bags ready in case this is a once in a lifetime [buying] opportunity. No crash or dip materialised — prices surged immediately, so waiting in cash missed the entry.
Prediction Wrong
As if Bitcoin will never touch both 5k and 10k again.
Prediction thread 3/3 correct
Now we now a little more about COVID19 I can make some predictions based on these initial finding and assumptions.
- Unclear Since 99% of all deaths are people with preexisting conditions and immunity is now likely, "regluar" people have little to fear for themselves. Healthy people mostly saw mild outcomes, but the premises (99% preexisting, guaranteed immunity) were oversimplified — long COVID and healthy-person deaths followed.
- Correct From now on it will be a hospital capacity and economic crisis. 2020 was defined by ICU overloads and a deep economic shock.
- Correct The economy can only creep up very slowly since COVID19 will be lingering for the forseeable future and because of the damage already done. Real economy and employment recovered gradually and COVID lingered for years, though stimulus-fuelled markets rebounded faster.
- Correct Once the path to the final solution is more clear (e.g. herd immunity statistics after testing) people can plan ahead and the economy will have an initial boost. Reopening and vaccine clarity drove recovery rallies.
- Unclear After most fear and uncertainty has subsided, Bitcoin will decouple from major indexes and start price exploring again towards the halving. BTC rallied through the May 2020 halving and broke all-time highs by December, but stayed correlated with equities through 2020 rather than decoupling.
- Unclear We might see some banks collapsing but they will be bailed out. When despite this major banks still run into trouble we might see some people flee towards gold and bitcoin. Gold hit an all-time high (~$2,075, Aug 2020) and BTC surged to ~$29k — the flight to safe havens landed — but no major bank collapsed in 2020.
Prediction Correct
Hij gaat gewoon terug naar 8500.