Prediction thread 3/3 correct
Now we now a little more about COVID19 I can make some predictions based on these initial finding and assumptions.
- Unclear Since 99% of all deaths are people with preexisting conditions and immunity is now likely, "regluar" people have little to fear for themselves. Healthy people mostly saw mild outcomes, but the premises (99% preexisting, guaranteed immunity) were oversimplified — long COVID and healthy-person deaths followed.
- Correct From now on it will be a hospital capacity and economic crisis. 2020 was defined by ICU overloads and a deep economic shock.
- Correct The economy can only creep up very slowly since COVID19 will be lingering for the forseeable future and because of the damage already done. Real economy and employment recovered gradually and COVID lingered for years, though stimulus-fuelled markets rebounded faster.
- Correct Once the path to the final solution is more clear (e.g. herd immunity statistics after testing) people can plan ahead and the economy will have an initial boost. Reopening and vaccine clarity drove recovery rallies.
- Unclear After most fear and uncertainty has subsided, Bitcoin will decouple from major indexes and start price exploring again towards the halving. BTC rallied through the May 2020 halving and broke all-time highs by December, but stayed correlated with equities through 2020 rather than decoupling.
- Unclear We might see some banks collapsing but they will be bailed out. When despite this major banks still run into trouble we might see some people flee towards gold and bitcoin. Gold hit an all-time high (~$2,075, Aug 2020) and BTC surged to ~$29k — the flight to safe havens landed — but no major bank collapsed in 2020.